Will the “AI Satellite Unicorn”, a networking satellite with 10 billion yuan, be a sea of stars or a foam in the future? (Satellite Sales)

The growth trajectory of Guoxing Aerospace can be regarded as a “textbook case” in the capital market. Since its establishment in 2018, the company has completed nine rounds of financing, with its post-investment valuation soaring from an initial 95 million yuan to 6.5 billion yuan by the end of 2024, representing a growth rate of 6742% over seven years, far exceeding that of Internet unicorn companies during the same period.
The enthusiastic support from capital stems from the scarce positioning of “AI+Aerospace”. The “Star Computing Plan” led by the company’s founder, Lu Chuan, proposes to construct a space computing network with a network of 2,800 computing satellites. The world’s first AI large model scientific satellite, launched in September 2024, verified the feasibility of AI technology in orbit operation, further strengthening the practicality of this vision.
Guoxing Aerospace’s business model is divided into two major segments: satellite-based solutions (accounting for over 80%) and satellite services. The former primarily refers to satellite hardware sales, while the latter encompasses data services, orbit operation and maintenance, etc. Despite the company successfully completing 13 space missions and independently developing multiple AI satellites, its gross profit margin has fluctuated violently. During the reporting period, the consolidated gross profit margin hovered between 14% and 25.9%, significantly lower than the 30% to 40% level observed in traditional aerospace enterprises.
High costs are the core reason for the profitability dilemma. The company explained that the procurement of aerospace-grade components and satellite launch expenses account for more than 70% of the total cost. Taking a single basic satellite as an example, the manufacturing cost is about 2 million yuan, while the launch cost may be as high as several million yuan (depending on the type of rocket). In addition, the satellite depreciation cycle is short (usually 5-8 years), and the on-orbit loss is irreversible, further driving up the hidden costs.
The limitations of the business model cannot be ignored. The customers of Guoxing Aerospace are mainly local governments and large institutions, with their demands focusing on customized scenarios such as remote sensing monitoring and emergency communication. Although this ToG/B model can bring stable orders, the bargaining space is limited.
The prospectus admits that “early sales of single satellites have led to production costs higher than the project value, with insufficient pricing flexibility.” Market insiders reveal that satellite leasing business carries hidden risks. If customers terminate the service midway, the residual value recovery rate of the satellite is less than 30%, and the increase in orbital resource occupation fees also exacerbates cost pressures.
Industry dilemma and breakthrough path
The financial difficulties of Guoxing Aerospace reflect the common challenges faced by China’s commercial aerospace industry. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industries, A-share satellite companies generally face profit pressure. For example, due to delayed delivery of military orders, China Satellite’s net profit in 2024 is expected to decline by more than 78% year-on-year; affected by the shrinking demand for civilian navigation terminals, Beidou Xingtong’s revenue in the first three quarters plummeted by 66%; and due to insufficient standardization of low-orbit satellite payloads, Shanghai Hanxun’s loss expanded to RMB 91.29 million in the first three quarters.
Industry analysts point out that commercial aerospace currently faces three bottlenecks: fragmented market demand (reliance on government orders with long payment cycles), insufficient industrial chain collaboration (reliance on imports for high-end components), and technology iteration risks (mismatch between satellite lifespan and update cycles).
To break the profitability curse, commercial aerospace enterprises need to reconstruct their business models. International benchmarking companies such as SpaceX bundle satellite manufacturing and communication services through Starlink, forming a subscription-based cash flow model; Planet Labs has shifted to a remote sensing data aaaS (as a service) model, reducing its dependence on hardware sales.
Guoxing Aerospace’s “Satellite Computing Plan” attempts to follow this path by building a satellite computing network to provide high value-added services such as space edge computing. However, the “Satellite Computing Plan” requires the launch of at least 2,800 satellites. Industry insiders estimate that the cost of networking may exceed ten billion yuan, far exceeding the company’s current financing capacity.
Breaking through in the short term relies on technology to reduce costs. The AI payload developed by Guoxing Aerospace can pre-process data processing tasks on the satellite side, reducing the amount of data transmitted back and thus lowering the construction cost of ground stations. The AI large model satellite launched in 2024 has verified the on-board model training capability. If the algorithm is successfully optimized, the efficiency of a single satellite may be increased by more than 30%.
The policy environment is also favorable. The 2024 “National Aerospace Law (Draft)” explicitly encourages private capital to participate in aerospace activities, and many local governments have launched satellite industrial parks and provided tax relief. The state-owned shareholder background of Guoxing Aerospace provides convenience for it to win local orders.
However, the urgent cash flow pressure cannot be ignored. As of the end of September 2024, Guoxing Aerospace had only 320 million yuan in cash on its books. Based on the current average monthly loss of 23.74 million yuan, this amount can only sustain operations for 13.5 months. In this IPO fundraising, 40% of the proceeds will be used for satellite research and development, 30% for debt repayment, and the remaining part for supplementing working capital, highlighting the current situation of “relying on external funding to survive”.
The patience of the capital market is being tested. Although iResearch predicts that the market size of China’s commercial aerospace industry will reach 2.8 trillion yuan by 2030, the industry is still in the early stage of “burning money for technology”. If Guoxing Aerospace cannot significantly increase the proportion of satellite-based service revenue within the next two years, it may be difficult to reverse the doubts about the “valuation bubble”. As a partner of a private equity fund said, “Commercial aerospace is a ten-year track, but the window period given by investors may only be three years.”