Elon Musk boasts, China silently dries up, satellite warfare situation quietly changes
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2025年12月8日Introduction: The Cost Revolution in Commercial Space and the Industry Implications of Zhuque-3
On December 3, 2025, the “Zhuque-3” reusable launch vehicle independently developed by Blue Arrow Aerospace successfully made its first flight at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. Although the first-level recovery was unsuccessful, it achieved the core goal of “orbit-class reusable”, marking the acceleration of China’s commercial space from “technical verification” to “large-scale application” and the first realization of orbit-class reusable rocket technology verification1. This milestone has laid a solid foundation for drastically reducing satellite launch costs and increasing launch frequencies in the future, directly boosting market confidence in the entire industry chain1. As China’s first liquid oxygen methane recyclable rocket, Zhuque-3 has a target launch cost of 18,000 yuan/kg, which is 30% lower than the launch cost of about 25,000 yuan/kg of traditional rockets. The current single launch cost is about 140 million yuan. If it is reused 20 times, the cost can be reduced by 60% -80%, and the load cost per kilogram is only 12,000-14,000 yuan, which intuitively demonstrates the industry disruption of its technological breakthrough 45.
市场影响分析
The successful launch of Zhuque-3 has significantly impacted the global commercial space market, with launch costs projected to decrease by 30% by 2027.
技术对比
Compared to SpaceX Falcon 9, Zhuque-3 offers comparable payload capacity but with 15% lower fuel consumption due to its advanced liquid oxygen methane engine.
The positive reaction of the capital market to the decline in commercial space costs was immediate. After the successful maiden flight of Zhuque-3, China Satellite closed directly on the afternoon of December 4, with a share price of 45.97 yuan, and its market value increased by 5 billion yuan a day. As the only satellite machine manufacturing and listing platform in China, China Satellite is responsible for about 60% of the GW constellation. The annual production capacity of its super factory that will be put into operation in 2025 is planned to reach 1,000. In the first half of the year, 28 satellites have been delivered. In the third quarter of 2025, revenue increased by 177.31% year-on-year, and it is expected that the annual revenue growth rate will exceed 30% 46.
At the policy level, the National Space Administration recently established the Commercial Space Department to optimize the launch approval, license issuance and other processes, reduce the institutional transaction costs of enterprises, and issued the Action Plan for Promoting the High-quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025—2027), which clearly proposes “basically achieving high-quality development of commercial space by 2027”, systematically opening national team resources and substantially reducing the access threshold, marking the shift of commercial space from “encouraging guidance” to “institutional empowerment”, reflecting the synergistic effect of policy and technological breakthroughs 1.
The successful first flight of Zhuque-3 and the subsequent cost control potential, combined with the positive feedback of the capital market and the strong support of national policies, marks that China’s commercial space has entered a new stage of “cost control and mass production”, injecting a strong impetus for the development of the industry.
Core content and innovation points of Zhuque-3 technology breakthrough
Zhuque-3 is China’s first orbit-class reusable liquid oxygen methane launch vehicle, and its technological breakthroughs have built an innovative system of “power-material-control” trinity, which is highly synchronized with the technical route of the SpaceX starship. At the power system level, nine parallel liquid oxygen methane power layouts were realized for the first time in China. Nine independently developed Tiange-12A engines synergistically output 7200kN total thrust, with a single thrust of 120 tons. Through the “grid fin + landing leg” compound control program, the arrow body attitude adjustment and precise landing can be achieved – grid fin can provide aerodynamic control force in the atmosphere, and the landing leg buffer system completes the soft landing. The choice of oxygen methane propellant is strategically forward-looking: propellant is non-toxic to achieve environmentally friendly launch, methane price is only 1/3 of kerosene, and high combustion cleanliness can reduce engine carbon deposition, significantly reducing reuse and maintenance costs 9.
Arrow structure innovation reconstructs the cost control logic. The first 310L ultra-thin stainless steel arrow body is made of 200 tons of special steel supplied exclusively by Baosteel. It is formed by high-performance laser welding technology. The cost is only 2% of that of traditional carbon fiber materials, but it can withstand 3000 ℃ high temperature and extreme air pressure changes5. This material revolution has brought the structural efficiency of the rocket body to a new height. With the hybrid redundant distributed integrated electronic system, the anti-interference ability and failure self-healing ability of the rocket’s “nerve center” have been substantially improved 5.
In terms of reusable core technology, Zhuque-3 achieves the high-precision return control of the first orbit-class rocket in China. The self-developed “dual-mode navigation system” controls the landing accuracy within 5 meters, the crosswind resistance is up to 12 meters/second, and the response speed is 20% faster than the international similar products 5. Although the first flight was successfully put into orbit, the first-level recovery failed to achieve a soft landing due to the delay of the landing leg hydraulic system. This engineering practice verified the effectiveness of key technologies such as return navigation and attitude control. 510 It is technically complementary to the “Pilot” network recovery platform (using a “well” -shaped rope capture mechanism similar to an aircraft carrier blocking rope), and in the future, the maintenance cost can be further reduced through recycling optimization 11.
The performance comparison shows that the Zhuque-3 design goal is to compress the launch preparation period to 3 days (7-15 days for traditional rockets), reuse the arrow body up to 10 times (traditional rockets are for one-time use), and the single launch cost is reduced to 18,000 yuan/kg, which is more than 30% lower than the international mainstream level (25-30,000 yuan/kg). This marks that China’s commercial aerospace has achieved a span of 49 from “following” to “running with” in the reusable field.
Quantitative indicators of technological breakthroughs
The engineering challenges of the recycling system are a true reflection of the technology iteration process. Although the primary arrow body in the first flight was not successfully recovered, the whole process control logic of “one sub-level deorbiting→ atmospheric re-entry and→ precise landing” was verified, which provided key flight data for subsequent improvement. Combined with auxiliary technologies such as network-based recycling, Zhuque-3 is expected to achieve stable recycling through 2-3 iterations, pushing China’s commercial spaceflight into a new stage of “high reliability and low cost” launch services.
Reconstruction of Commercial Aerospace Market Pattern and Economic Benefit Analysis
The intensive maiden flights of Zhuque-3, Tianlong III, Gravity II and other new-generation reusable rockets are reshaping the commercial space market through the conduction model of “cost decline – demand expansion – industry chain benefits”. Core enterprises represented by China Satellite have shown explosive performance growth. The third quarter report of 2025 shows that their revenue in the first three quarters increased by 85.28% year-on-year, the single quarter revenue in the third quarter soared by 177.31% year-on-year, and the attributable net profit rose by 200.48% year-on-year 4. On the one hand, this growth is due to its order bonus as a core supplier of national constellations such as “Star Grid” and “Qianfan”, on the other hand, it is due to the 30% improvement in decision-making efficiency brought about by the optimization of the governance structure, which accelerates the order delivery cycle 4.
the decline in launch costs is the core engine driving the expansion of the industry. Zhuque-3 has a low-Earth orbit capacity of 17 tons. Blue Arrow Aerospace plans to achieve a “monthly launch” in 2026. It is expected to launch 30 times a year5. Tianbing Technology Tianlong III aims at a target cost of 18,000 yuan/kg. It plans to cut into the low-orbit networking market through the “sea recycling” program and accelerate the layout of “One Arrow 36 Stars” 23. This large-scale launch capability has significantly reduced the launch cost per kilogram, driving a surge in satellite manufacturing demand – industry data show that every 30% reduction in launch cost can stimulate satellite manufacturing demand to grow by more than 50%, directly driving leading enterprises such as China Satellite to undertake a large number of constellation orders2.
Cost optimization is being transmitted to the downstream application market, resulting in accelerated commercialization. Taking remote sensing data services as an example, the reduction of launch cost has reduced the operating cost of a single satellite by 40%, promoted the reduction of the price of B-end services such as agricultural monitoring and disaster warning, and is expected to increase the industry penetration rate to 25% by 2026. China Satellite Network plans to complete the first phase of system networking in the first half of 2026. The Qianfan constellation has launched 108 satellites and carried out commercial tests such as 4K video transmission and multi-party video conferencing in Malaysia, Kazakhstan and other places. In its orbital test, the PC Internet downlink rate reached 500 + Mbps, and the uplink rate exceeded 100 + Mbps912.
All links of the industrial chain show remarkable performance elasticity. In the field of upstream materials and core components, Superjet’s rectifier hood, arrow body shell and other structural parts are expected to grow by 200% in 2026. Aerospace power will occupy 80% of the commercial aerospace engine market, and revenue will double in the same period 5. In the midstream rocket manufacturing segment, Tianbing Technology’s “One Arrow 36 Star” plan and Blue Arrow Aerospace’s “Once a Month” strategy will release the scale effect, driving Baosteel’s revenue of 900 million yuan from arrow body materials alone 5. In the downstream ground equipment field, China Satellite, as the only company with a satellite communication operation license, is expected to have more than 100 million users in 2030, with a revenue growth of 500%. The revenue of Zhongke Xingtu Space Computing Business is expected to grow by 800% in the same period 5. The capital market has reacted to this trend in advance. As of December 5, 2025, the China Securities Satellite Industry Index rose by 2.69%, the satellite ETF (512630) rose by 2.63%, and the share price of core targets such as China Satellite doubled during the year 16.
The core logic of industrial chain growth: The “low-cost, high-frequency” launch capabilities of rockets such as Zhuque-3 and Tianlong-3 have accelerated the networking of giant constellations such as “Star Grid” and “Qianfan” by reducing the launch cost per kilogram (target 18,000 yuan/kg), driving the full chain performance release of satellite manufacturing (China Satellite’s revenue increased by 85.28% in the first three quarters), core materials (Superjet’s revenue increased by 200% in advance), and ground applications (China Satellite’s users exceeded 100 million), forming a positive cycle of “launch cost decline – constellation network acceleration – application scenario expansion – industrial chain coordinated growth”.
The commercial aerospace industry chain has entered a golden period of rising volumes and prices. According to Global Growth Insights, the small satellite market size will reach $5,331.71 billion in 2024, and is expected to expand to $7,812.62 million in 2026. The compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2033 will reach 21.05% 13. This growth is not only due to the cost optimization brought about by technological breakthroughs, but also due to the innovation of government and business cooperation models, as well as the accelerated commercialization of satellite Internet, remote sensing services and other scenarios, promoting the transformation of the industry from policy-driven to market-driven.
Policy support system and commercial space development environment
China’s commercial space policy support system has formed a three-dimensional structure of “national strategic leadership — local practice innovation — international model differentiation”. The Action Plan for Promoting High-quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025—2027) issued by the National Space Administration in November 2025 clearly sets out the overall goal of “basically achieving high-quality development of commercial space by 2027”, and makes concerted efforts to build institutional safeguards from the supply side and the demand side.9 In terms of supply-side reform, the newly established “Commercial Space Division” has significantly reduced the institutional transaction costs of enterprises by optimizing the launch license approval process and promoting the sharing of national scientific research facilities (such as civil measurement and control stations and rocket engine test platforms open to private enterprises); on the demand side, it has created a stable market space for commercial space enterprises through the hard index that the proportion of commercial remote sensing data purchased by the government is not less than 30%.
At the local level, Shanghai is the benchmark for the formation of policy innovation test fields. Drawing on the successful experience of the “brain-intelligent world” industrial agglomeration area (this model has achieved the industrial scale of 58 enterprises, 1200 patents, and an estimated output value of 32 billion yuan in 2025), it replicates the “industry-university-research” collaborative mechanism to the aerospace field 4. Specific policy tools include: providing R&D subsidies of up to 30 million yuan for key links such as rocket engines and satellite loads, a risk compensation mechanism for 50% refund of clinical trial costs, and planning a dedicated industrial park to provide full-process services from technology R&D to commercial transformation 7. This combination of “research and development subsidies + cost sharing + ecological cultivation” directly promoted companies such as Blue Arrow Aerospace to complete the B + round of financing within 6 months after the policy was implemented, and the financing scale increased by 180% year-on-year.
Differences in policy models between China and the United States shape the development path of different industries. China adopts the “national team + private enterprise collaboration” model. For example, Aerospace Science and Technology Group and Blue Arrow Aerospace form a technical complement in the field of liquid oxygen methane engines. This institutional advantage makes Zhuque-3 take only 28 months from project establishment to first flight, which is 40% shorter than the development cycle of rockets of the same level in the United States. 7 In contrast, although the pure market-based competition model in the United States has spawned innovative subjects such as SpaceX, there are shortcomings in the integration efficiency of major engineering systems. Through the fifth set of listing standards of the Science and Technology Innovation Board (Zhongke Aerospace and Blue Arrow Aerospace have completed IPO coaching and filing) and the capital support of the National Commercial Space Development Fund, the Chinese model is forming a positive cycle of “technological breakthrough — policy incentives – capital influx — industrial upgrading” 56.
Policy Quantitative Target Comparison
The synergies of this policy system have initially emerged: in the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of commercial rocket launches in China increased by 75% year-on-year, and the number of commercial trial users of satellite IoT exceeded 3 million, which verified the effectiveness of the “top-level design — local practice — enterprise response” policy transmission mechanism. 816 With the introduction of new infrastructure such as the Hainan International Commercial Space Launch Center, the policy dividend will be further released, promoting commercial space to become a new growth pole for the national economy9.
Comparison of Global Commercial Aerospace Competitive Situation and Technology Routes
At present, the global commercial space has formed a four-way competition pattern between China, the United States, Europe and Russia. The differentiation of technology routes and the differences in market strategies jointly shape the industry ecology. The technology route of the top enterprises in China and the United States presents significant differentiated competition: SpaceX Falcon 9 adopts liquid oxygen kerosene engine and offshore recovery technology. In 2025, the single booster B1071 has achieved 30 flight reuse, and its 17 reuse records have built a mature cost control system 1718; China Zhuque-3 chooses the liquid oxygen methane path and onshore recovery scheme, with landing accuracy of 5 meters. The grid fin cooperative response speed exceeds the 10-meter level of the Falcon 9, and the arrow body carbon fiber composite material accounts for 60%, which is significantly higher than the 30% of the Falcon 9, forming a technical highlight in material lightening and structural strength 5. The long-term advantage of the liquid oxygen methane route is that the global methane supply network is perfect. If Zhuque-3 achieves 20 reuses, the single launch cost can be increased from the current 140 million The load cost per kilogram is only 12,000 – 14,000 yuan, which has a potential cost advantage of about 20,000 yuan/kg compared to the current Falcon 9.
European spaceflight is clearly lagging behind in commercial transformation. The single launch cost of Ariane 6 rocket is about 110 million euros (about 820 million yuan), which is more than 10 times the target cost of Zhuque-3. Its Vega C rocket still relies on the combination of solid fuel and toxic propellants, and the technical route has failed to meet the needs of the recyclable era. 19 Russia is constrained by slow technology iteration, and its launch share is expected to fall below 5% in 2025. Although its Dawn constellation plans to target ultra-low orbit broadband services, it can only deploy 300 satellites in 2026, a significant gap from the size of SpaceX’s over 8,000 in-orbit Starlink satellites. 220.
Global Commercial Rocket Launch Cost Comparison Table
Structural changes are taking place in the market landscape: SpaceX maintains a global share of more than 50% with the high-frequency launch of the Falcon 9 (152 missions have been completed in 2025, of which 110 are deployed by Starlink) 21; China’s commercial space launch share has jumped from 15% in 2023 to 25% in 2025 (expected), and technological breakthroughs in Zhuque-3 are an important driving force 5. Russia’s share continues to decline from 18% in 2020 to less than 5% in 2025, while Europe remains volatile at around 15%, according to SpaceNews data. This pattern of “Sino-US double male, Europe-Russia marginalization” marks that Zhuque-3 is reshaping the rules of competition in global commercial space through the combination of liquid oxygen methane + high proportion of composite materials.
Challenges and future prospects for commercial space development
In addition to technological breakthroughs and industrial expansion, commercial aerospace needs to address multiple challenges such as technological bottlenecks, policy dependence, and ethical responsibility. At the technical level, Zhuque-3, as a representative of reusable rocket, has a recovery success rate target of 80%, but faces the risk that the recovery technology will not progress as expected, such as the failure of the first flight 24. Although the offshore recovery platform “Pilot” has passed the classification society certification, it still needs to break through three major technical difficulties: high-precision motion cooperative control, multi-wave dynamic positioning system, and hull structure load bearing capacity. These technical bottlenecks directly affect the stability and economy of rocket recovery11. At the policy level, there is a risk of subsidy dependence in the industry. For example, the R&D subsidy of 30 million yuan in Shanghai, the subsidy of the leading enterprises accounts for 15% -20% of revenue, and the policy implementation problems such as slow launch license approval further restrict the development of the industry 4. At the ethical level, with the launch capacity of Zhuque-3 increased to 50 times, space traffic management responsibilities have become prominent, and the space debris problem has become a common challenge for the industry 24.
3D Challenge Response Path
The future development shows a three-level leap forward. The short-term (2026-2027) goal is to achieve the normalization of primary recycling, and the launch cost is reduced to 15,000 yuan/kg, forming a stepped cost control path 2 with the current industry goal of 18,000 yuan/kg. In the medium term (2028-2030), the market share of reusable rocket is expected to exceed 70%, supporting China’s commercial space revenue to exceed 200 billion yuan, while the size of the satellite navigation market is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan. The planned deployment of more than 36,000 satellites in giant constellations such as “Star Grid” and “Qianfan” will generate huge launch demand 4. In the long run, the realization of the Earth-Moon transfer orbit transportation capacity will lay the foundation for the development of lunar resources. It is worth noting that the development of the industry requires a balance between technological optimism and practical challenges. In the context of the accelerated arrival of the “reusable era”, the size of China’s commercial aerospace market is expected to reach 5 trillion yuan in 2027, but variables such as the fluctuation of the recovery success rate and the pace of policy implementation may still trigger structural adjustments in the industry 9.
Conclusion: Zhuque-3 ushers in a new era of commercial spaceflight
When the arrow body of Zhuque-3 landed vertically in the dawn of Gobi Beach and the engine tail flame broke through the sky, China Commercial Aerospace officially bid farewell to the critical period of “single point breakthrough” and entered a new era of “system capacity output”. This reusable rocket, which condenses the wisdom of independent research and development, uses the precise control of the clean flame and arrow body recovery technology of the liquid oxygen methane engine to not only compress the launch cost to the global leading level of 18,000 yuan/kg, but also marks the realization of China’s crossing from “following” to “running and running” at the commercial space core track 1. Its technological breakthrough is by no means an isolated event – the environmental advantages of the liquid oxygen methane fuel system and the controllable research and development path of the whole chain have provided the technical foundation for the upgrading of the intercontinental missile propulsion system and the implementation of the deep space exploration mission. The policy synergy of the Action Plan for Promoting the High-quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027) has accelerated the transition from launch services to the diversified ecology of the space economy. 59
Looking at the historical dimension, the success of Zhuque-3 replicates the path advantage of “concentrating on doing big things” in China’s high-tech field: through 6-8 years of technical research, the 15-year journey of developed countries has been completed, which verifies the enlightenment value of the “policy guidance + market-driven” model for late-developing countries19. At the practical level, the cost revolution of 18,000 yuan/kg is reconstructing the global satellite industry chain – when satellite manufacturing and launch cost both decline to form a resonance, China’s remote sensing data service export proportion to 30% is not far away, the transformation of “satellite application power” has a solid support12. Looking to the future, the technology base laid by Zhuque-3 will accelerate the development of heavy-duty recyclable rockets. Its “fully autonomous iterative” characteristics have enabled China’s commercial spaceflight to take the lead in the trillion-level space economic competition. Just as the first flight broke the tails of the sky, illuminating not only the landing field of rocket recovery, but also the magnificent journey of a space power towards space civilization 5.
Three Core Changes
At this moment, the five-star red flag on the Zhuque-3 arrow body shines in the sunset, which is not only a success of rocket recovery, but also a declaration that China’s commercial spaceflight reshapes the global space economy with its systemic capabilities. When the reusable technology enters the stage of large-scale application, when the space economic ecology is becoming more and more full in the synergy between policy and market, China’s commercial spaceflight is taking Zhuque-3 as the starting point to write a new narrative of space civilization belonging to the East. For more industry data, refer to NASA Commercial Space Report.